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Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$60K vol$1336K liq11/4/2026
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D SenateNo Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R SenateNo Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate
Agreement + Oil < $80; D SenateAgreement + Oil < $80; D Senate
Agreement + Oil < $80; R SenateAgreement + Oil < $80; R Senate
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PoliticsElectionsGeopolitics21d left$60k vol $1.3M liq